Mathematical Models of the Rest of the Season

I just became a subscriber to baseballprospectus.com and there's a lot of interesting stuff on there. Something that caught my eye was a model they use to play out the rest of the season. They actually use the model and a bunch of complicated algorithms (that I don't understand so I can't explain) and run it 1 million times. Of the one million times the Marlins actually won the division 2.76% of the time and the wild card 32.79% of the time. So with this mathematical model the Marlins made the playoffs 35.56% of the time. So if these "stat geeks" are right we have a little more than a 1 in 3 chance of making the playoffs.